Working Paper: NBER ID: w26857
Authors: Robert J. Shiller
Abstract: The U.S. economic expansion since 2009 is the longest on record since 1854, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee. This paper seeks to understand this phenomenon better by looking at the time paths of popular narratives over this interval, of stories that people have been telling that offer clues into their economic behavior. Six constellations of narratives are studied, identified by keywords “Great Depression,” “secular stagnation,” “sustainability,” “housing bubble,” “strong economy,” and “save more.”
Keywords: economic fluctuations; narratives; stories; great depression; secular stagnation; sustainability; housing bubble; strong economy; save more
JEL Codes: D91; E21; E32; E44; E71
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic narratives (E65) | economic behavior (D22) |
| economic behavior (D22) | economic narratives (E65) |
| narrative of the Great Depression (E65) | economic behavior (D22) |
| political discourse (D72) | narrative contagion (Z13) |
| narrative contagion (Z13) | spending behavior (D12) |
| narrative of 'save more' (D14) | consumer spending (D12) |
| secular stagnation narrative (E65) | perceptions related to spending (D12) |
| strong economy narrative (E65) | perceptions related to spending (D12) |