Working Paper: NBER ID: w26712
Authors: Nishant Yonzan; Laxman Timilsina; Inas Rashad Kelly
Abstract: Starting in 1982, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend allows each full-time resident in Alaska, including infants born in the qualifying year, to receive a sizable dividend. This dividend, which represents a form of a Universal Basic Income on a small scale, could alter incentives surrounding fertility. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences models to account for confounding factors and unobserved heterogeneity, we model the effect of income on fertility by exploiting this income shock around 1982 using Natality files from Vital Statistics and abortion data from the Centers for Disease Control, merged with data from the Census on various state characteristics. Primary results suggest that the dividend increased fertility and reduced the spacing between births, particularly for females in the 20-44 year age group. Our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing income should consider fertility consequences and their implications for economic growth.
Keywords: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend; fertility; cash transfers; economic incentives
JEL Codes: H7; I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (APFD) (G35) | fertility rate (J13) |
| Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (APFD) (G35) | abortion rates (J13) |
| Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (APFD) (G35) | birth spacing (J13) |
| fertility rate (J13) | births per 1000 women (20-24 age group) (J13) |
| fertility rate (J13) | births per 1000 women (25-34 age group) (J11) |
| fertility rate (J13) | births per 1000 women (35-44 age group) (J19) |