Working Paper: NBER ID: w26705
Authors: David Autor; Claudia Goldin; Lawrence F. Katz
Abstract: The race between education and technology provides a canonical framework that does an excellent job of explaining U.S. wage structure changes across the twentieth century. The framework involves secular increases in the demand for more-educated workers from skill-biased technological change, combined with variations in the supply of skills from changes in educational access. We expand the analysis backwards and forwards. The framework helps explain rising skill differentials in the nineteenth and twenty-first centuries, but needs to be augmented to illuminate the recent convexification of education returns and implied slowdown in the growth of the relative demand for college workers. Increased educational wage differentials explain 75 percent of the rise of U.S. wage inequality from 1980 to 2000 as compared to 38 percent for 2000 to 2017.
Keywords: education; technology; wage differentials; inequality
JEL Codes: J2; J31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| SBTC (Y20) | Demand for skilled workers (college equivalents) (J24) |
| Educational attainment (I21) | Supply of skilled workers (J24) |
| Demand for skilled workers (college equivalents) (J24) | Educational wage differentials (J31) |
| Increase in relative supply of college equivalents (D29) | College wage premium (J31) |
| Increase in educational wage differentials (J31) | Increase in wage inequality (J31) |
| Rise in returns to postsecondary schooling (I26) | Increase in variance of log hourly wages (J39) |