Working Paper: NBER ID: w26672
Authors: David Romer
Abstract: Most empirical papers in economics focus on two aspects of their results: whether the estimates are statistically significantly different from zero and the interpretation of the point estimates. This focus obscures important information about the implications of the results for economically interesting hypotheses about values of the parameters other than zero, and in some cases, about the strength of the evidence against values of zero. This limitation can be overcome by reporting confidence intervals for papers’ main estimates and discussing their economic interpretation.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: C10; C12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| emphasis on point estimates and statistical significance (C13) | omission of information regarding strength of evidence against parameter values other than zero (C20) |
| not reporting confidence intervals (C59) | inability to assess implications of findings for economically relevant parameter values (D81) |
| reporting confidence intervals (C46) | fuller understanding of uncertainty and variability of estimates (C51) |
| adopting confidence interval reporting (C59) | better-informed economic decisions and interpretations (D80) |