Working Paper: NBER ID: w2667
Authors: Daniel R. Feenberg; Harvey S. Rosen
Abstract: Critics of Governor Michael Dukakis have suggested that this year?s $400 million overestimate of tax revenues in Massachusetts casts doubt on his putative managerial skills. In this paper, we carefully examine the entire Dukakis forecasting record. We find that the 1988 experience was "unusual? in the sense that on average, revenue forecasts produced by his administration have been too low rather than too high. In addition, we find that there is no significant difference between the quality of the Dukakis forecasts and those of his predecessors in Massachusetts. Hence, those who seek to discover anything extraordinarily positive or negative about Dukakis? managerial capabilities should shift their attention to skills other than revenue forecasting.
Keywords: Revenue Forecasting; Dukakis Administration; Tax Revenues
JEL Codes: H71; H72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Dukakis administration forecasts (H68) | systematic underestimation of revenues (H27) |
| Dukakis administration forecasts (H68) | forecast errors similar to other governors (E37) |
| economic conditions (E66) | forecast accuracy (C53) |
| forecasting environment's volatility (G17) | forecast errors (C53) |