Working Paper: NBER ID: w26668
Authors: Benjamin Loos; Steffen Meyer; Michaela Pagel
Abstract: We use individual-level data on all security trades, holdings, spending, and income from an online retail bank. We study the effects of an exogenous change in the displayed purchase prices of the mutual funds in individuals’ portfolios. We find that individuals are more likely to sell what we call fictitious winners, i.e., funds that are winners under the newly displayed purchase price but are losers under the actual purchase price. We also document that individual consumption increases in response to realizing fictitious capital gains. We thus document a causal link among purchase prices, trades, and consumption using observational data and find that the trading and consumption results are more prevalent for less-informed investors. We thereby document a marginal propensity to consume out of (confused) capital gains, which is informative about the literature on consumption out of stock market wealth.
Keywords: Disposition Effect; Consumption; Capital Gains; Investor Behavior; Financial Psychology
JEL Codes: G02; G5
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Fictitious capital gains (G19) | likelihood of selling fictitious winners (D44) |
| Fictitious capital gains (G19) | likelihood of selling fictitious losers (G24) |
| Realizing fictitious capital gains (G19) | increased consumption (E21) |
| Fictitious capital gains (G19) | trading behavior (G41) |
| Less-informed investors (G41) | effect of fictitious capital gains on consumption (E21) |