Working Paper: NBER ID: w26611
Authors: Kyle Handley; Fariha Kamal; Ryan Monarch
Abstract: We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify firms that eventually faced tariff increases. They accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For the average affected firm, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. We construct product-level measures of exporters' exposure to import tariff increases and estimate the impact on U.S. export growth. The most exposed products had relatively lower export growth in 2018-2019, with larger effects in 2019. The decline in export growth in 2019Q3, for example, is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of 2% for the typical product and up to 4% for products with higher than average exposure.
Keywords: Import Tariffs; Export Growth; Supply Chains; Trade Policy
JEL Codes: F1; F13; F14; F23; H2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Foreign retaliatory tariffs (F19) | Export growth (F43) |
| Import tariffs (F19) | Export growth (F43) |
| Higher exposure to tariffs (F14) | Export growth (F43) |