Working Paper: NBER ID: w26610
Authors: Mary Amiti; Stephen J. Redding; David E. Weinstein
Abstract: Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.
Keywords: Tariffs; Trade Policy; Import Prices
JEL Codes: F13; F14; F68
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| U.S. tariffs (F19) | U.S. import values (F14) |
| U.S. tariffs (F13) | U.S. import prices (F14) |
| 10 percent tariff (F19) | 10 percent drop in imports (F14) |
| tariffs (F13) | foreign exporters lower prices (F14) |
| 2018 tariffs (F19) | full impact on U.S. import volumes (F69) |
| tariffs on steel inputs (L61) | smaller capacity to protect steel workers (J28) |
| initial passthrough of tariffs (F13) | close to 100 percent (C60) |