Working Paper: NBER ID: w26510
Authors: Robert M. Lantis; Erik T. Nesson
Abstract: We investigate the hot hand hypothesis using detailed data on free throws and field goal attempts for the 2004-2005 through 2015-2016 NBA regular seasons. Free throws represent a more controlled setting, allowing a closer examination of the potential physiological mechanisms behind success in repeated motions, while field goal attempts represent the setting most observers have in mind when commenting on a player’s repeated shooting success. We examine these two settings together, within the same players in the same games, permitting a more comprehensive analysis of the hot hand. We find a small hot hand effect for free throws, which more than doubles for longer streaks of consecutively made free throws. However, if a player makes a field goal, he is no more or less likely to make his next field goal attempt, and longer streaks of consecutively made field goals reduce the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt. These results are robust to a large number of controls, including controlling for the characteristics of the previous shots.
Keywords: hot hand; NBA; shooting performance; free throws; field goals
JEL Codes: D91
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Previous successful free throw (Y60) | Next successful free throw (Y60) |
| Four consecutive successful free throws (Y60) | Next successful free throw (Y60) |
| Previous successful field goal (Y80) | Next successful field goal (Y60) |
| Three consecutive successful field goals (Y80) | Next successful field goal (Y60) |