Working Paper: NBER ID: w26468
Authors: Chingmu Chen; Wanjung Cheng; Shinkun Peng; Raymond Riezman; Ping Wang
Abstract: If international trade is strictly trade in intermediate goods, would the common presumption, that small, less developed economies (the South) lose from trade wars still be true? We address this question by constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the North and the South trade technology-embodied intermediate goods. We show that the detrimental effects of the trade war are mitigated by the fact that producers in the South can adjust their choice of imported intermediate goods and their investment in domestic technologies. We establish sufficient conditions under which the steady-state trade equilibrium length of the production line and the range of domestic production in the South both expand in response to a tariff war. It thereby creates a novel channel of scale-scope trade-off: The South counters the losses from trade protection in the volume and value of trade (scale) with an upward movement along the value chain (scope). As a result, average productivity in the South and aggregate technology used by the South both turn out to be higher.
Keywords: Trade Wars; Technology; Productivity; Intermediate Goods
JEL Codes: D92; F12; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade wars (F19) | productivity in the South (O49) |
| trade wars (F19) | adjustment in choice of imported intermediate goods (F16) |
| trade wars (F19) | investment in domestic technologies (O39) |
| adjustment in choice of imported intermediate goods (F16) | average productivity (O49) |
| investment in domestic technologies (O39) | average productivity (O49) |
| longer production line (L23) | productivity (O49) |
| foreign trade protection (F13) | domestic intermediate producers' exports to the North (F10) |
| foreign trade protection (F13) | domestic prices of exportables (F14) |
| trade protection (F13) | length of production line (L23) |
| trade protection (F13) | expansion of domestic production ranges (L79) |
| trade wars (F19) | increase in average technology in the South (O49) |