Working Paper: NBER ID: w26416
Authors: Martha J. Bailey; Tanya S. Byker; Elena Patel; Shanthi Ramnath
Abstract: We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California’s 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women’s employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings roughly a decade after they gave birth.
Keywords: Paid Family Leave; Women's Employment; Labor Market Outcomes
JEL Codes: J08; J1; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Paid Family Leave Act (J22) | likelihood of taking paid leave (J22) |
| Paid Family Leave Act (J22) | employment of new mothers (J22) |
| Paid Family Leave Act (J22) | annual wages of new mothers (J31) |
| Paid Family Leave Act (J22) | attachment to pre-birth employers (J63) |