Working Paper: NBER ID: w26352
Authors: Hitoshi Shigeoka
Abstract: Risk preferences play a fundamental role in individuals’ economic decision-making. We examine whether the historical macroeconomic environment shapes individuals’ willingness to take risks. Using nationally representative samples from Japan and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we find that men who experienced severe economic conditions in youth are more risk averse in adulthood and the effect is long-lasting. In addition, those men are less likely to be self-employed and they have longer tenure, which are consistent with elevated risk aversion. This study highlights the importance of experience at a critical period of life on the formation of risk preferences.
Keywords: Risk Preferences; Economic Conditions; Recession; Labor Market Outcomes
JEL Codes: D81; J24; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic shocks during ages 18 to 21 (N12) | increased risk aversion in adulthood (D15) |
| increased risk aversion in adulthood (D15) | reduced likelihood of self-employment (L26) |
| economic shocks during ages 18 to 21 (N12) | reduced likelihood of self-employment (L26) |