Working Paper: NBER ID: w26334
Authors: Yifan Gong; Ralph Stinebrickner; Todd R. Stinebrickner
Abstract: While a large literature is interested in the relationship between family and labor supply outcomes, little is known about the expectations of these objects at earlier stages. We examine these expectations, taking advantage of unique data from the Berea Panel Study. In addition to characterizing expectations, starting during college, the data details outcomes for ten years after graduation. On average, both male and female college students are well-informed about the future gender gap in labor supply. Gender differences in beliefs about this future gap are primarily explained by gender differences in beliefs about how future family outcomes are related to future labor supply. Methodological contributions come from an approach for addressing measurement error in survey questions and the recognition that expectations data, along with longitudinal data, can potentially help address endogeneity issues arising in the estimation of the causal effect of family on labor supply.
Keywords: Labor Supply; Family Outcomes; Expectations Data
JEL Codes: J12; J13; J2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Women expect to have children earlier than men (J13) | Women's labor supply beliefs (J29) |
| Beliefs about the timing of children (J13) | Women's labor supply beliefs (J29) |
| Beliefs about labor supply influenced by young children (J22) | Women's labor supply beliefs (J29) |
| Presence of young children (J13) | Female labor supply (J21) |
| Perceived probability of being married (J12) | Actual probability of being married (J12) |
| Perceived probability of having young children (J13) | Actual probability of having young children (J13) |