Working Paper: NBER ID: w26223
Authors: Tiziano Arduini; Alberto Bisin; Onur Özgür; Eleonora Patacchini
Abstract: We study risky behavior of adolescents. Concentrating on smoking and alcohol use, we structurally estimate a dynamic social interaction model in the context of students' school networks included in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). The model allows for forward-looking behavior of agents, addiction effects, and social interactions in the form of preferences for conformity in the social network. We find strong evidence for forward looking dynamics and addiction effects. We also find that social interactions in the estimated dynamic model are quantitatively large. A misspecified static model would fit data substantially worse, while producing a much smaller estimate of the social interaction effect. With the estimated dynamic model, a temporary shock to students' preferences in the 10th grade has effects on their behavior in grades 10, 11, 12, with estimated social multipliers 1:53, 1:03, and 0:76, respectively. The multiplier effect of a permanent shock is much larger, up to 3:7 in grade 12. Moreover (semi-) elasticities of a permanent change in the availability of alcohol or cigarettes at home on child risky behavior implied by the dynamic equilibrium are 25%, 63%, and 79%, in grades 10, 11, 12, respectively.
Keywords: adolescent behavior; dynamic social interactions; health risk behavior; smoking; alcohol consumption
JEL Codes: C18; C33; C62; C63; C73; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Neglecting endogeneity (C20) | Significant biases in estimates of addiction and conformity effects (C92) |
| Policy interventions to affect adolescents' risky behavior (J13) | Larger aggregate effects through social multiplier channel (E16) |
| Temporary shock to students' preferences in the 10th grade (D29) | Adolescent smoking and alcohol use in grades 10, 11, and 12 (I12) |
| Permanent shock to students' preferences (D29) | Adolescent smoking and alcohol use in grade 12 (I12) |
| Change in availability of alcohol or cigarettes at home (L66) | Child risky behavior in grades 10, 11, and 12 (I12) |