Working Paper: NBER ID: w26187
Authors: Michael Luca; Deepak Malhotra; Christopher Poliquin
Abstract: There have been dozens of high-profile mass shootings in recent decades. This paper presents three main findings about the impact of mass shootings on gun policy. First, mass shootings evoke large policy responses. A single mass shooting leads to a 15% increase in the number of firearm bills introduced within a state in the year after a mass shooting. This effect increases with the extent of media coverage. Second, mass shootings account for a small portion of all gun deaths, but have an outsized influence relative to other homicides. Third, when looking at bills that were actually enacted into law, the impact of mass shootings depends on the party in power. The annual number of laws that loosen gun restrictions doubles in the year following a mass shooting in states with Republican-controlled legislatures. We find no significant effect of mass shootings on laws enacted when there is a Democrat-controlled legislature, nor do we find a significant effect of mass shootings on the enactment of laws that tighten gun restrictions.
Keywords: mass shootings; gun policy; legislation; media coverage; political response
JEL Codes: D0; I1; K0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| mass shootings (Y40) | number of firearm bills introduced (K16) |
| mass shootings (Y40) | number of laws that loosen gun restrictions (K16) |
| mass shootings (Y40) | number of laws enacted in Democrat-controlled legislatures (K16) |
| mass shootings (Y40) | legislative activity (D72) |
| media coverage and public attention surrounding mass shootings (H84) | legislative responses (K16) |
| political context (party control) (D72) | legislative response to mass shootings (K16) |