Working Paper: NBER ID: w25951
Authors: Tilman Graff
Abstract: I assess the efficiency of transport networks for every country in Africa. Using rich spatial data, I simulate trade flows over more than 70,000 links covering the entire continent. I maximise over the space of networks and find the optimal road system for every African state. My simulations predict that Africa would gain 1.1% of total welfare from better organising its national road systems. I then construct a novel dataset of local network inefficiency and I find that colonial infrastructure projects significantly skew trade networks towards a sub-optimal equilibrium. I also find evidence for regional favouritism and inefficient aid provision.
Keywords: transport networks; trade efficiency; colonial infrastructure; Africa
JEL Codes: F10; R40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Colonial railroad proximity (N91) | Current road infrastructure (R42) |
| Colonial railroad proximity (N91) | Trade efficiency (F14) |
| Ethnic power dynamics (J15) | Infrastructure allocation (R53) |
| Areas associated with national leaders (F59) | Infrastructure allocation (R53) |
| Colonial infrastructure projects (F54) | Current trade networks (F19) |
| Colonial railroad investment (R42) | Infrastructure discrimination (H54) |