Working Paper: NBER ID: w25934
Authors: Joshua Aizenman; Yinwong Cheung; Xingwang Qian
Abstract: This paper examines determinants of the international reserves (IR) currency composition before and after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Applying the annual data of 58 countries, we confirm that countries that trade more with the US, euro zone, UK, and Japan, and issue more debt denominated in the big four currencies (US dollar, euro, pound, yen) hoard more IR in these currencies. We find scale effects in which countries tend to diversify from the big four currencies as they increase their IR/GDP and that a growing shortage of global safe assets (GSAs) induces countries to hold more big four currencies. Countries hold less big four currencies as IR after the 2008 GFC, while they hold more of such currencies since the tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing. The 2008 GFC and QE tapering weakened and sometimes reversed the effect of several economic factors. We also find that TARGET2 balances matter for the currency composition in the euro zone; commodity-exporting countries tend to diversify their IR from the big four currencies when their terms of trade improve; and that the valuation effects induced by Euro/USD exchange rate changes diminish the significance of the GFC in explaining the currency composition of IR.
Keywords: international reserves; currency composition; global safe assets; financial crisis; sovereign wealth funds
JEL Codes: F15; F3; F31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade volume (F10) | currency composition (F31) |
| IR-to-GDP ratio (F50) | diversification from major currencies (F31) |
| shortage of global safe assets (F65) | reserves in big four currencies (F31) |
| GFC (F53) | share of big four currencies in reserves (F31) |
| tapering of QE (C54) | share of big four currencies in reserves (F31) |
| debt issuance in big four currencies (F34) | IR in big four currencies (F31) |
| availability of GSAs (L95) | currency composition of IR (F33) |
| GFC (F53) | weakened effect of trade with major currency countries on reserves (F31) |
| post-crisis (H12) | reversal of IR-to-GDP and big four currencies relationship (F31) |