Working Paper: NBER ID: w25896
Authors: Lars J. Lefgren; Jaren C. Pope; David P. Sims
Abstract: Using county-level analysis, this study demonstrates that there exists at most a minor relationship between the large, contemporary geographical variation in U.S. intergenerational income mobility and state-level policies. In addition to investigating the effects of specific policies, we introduce an omnibus test for state policy differences in total, based on the principle of geographic discontinuities. We further explore the discrepancy between these findings and the expected efficacy of mobility-enhancing policies seen in common applied economic models and successful program evaluations. We conclude that the gap between quasi-experimental evaluations and observed policy effects presents pressing questions for further study.
Keywords: intergenerational income mobility; state policies; economic mobility
JEL Codes: I30
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| state-level policies (H79) | intergenerational income mobility (J62) |
| public education investments (H52) | intergenerational income mobility (J62) |
| broader social welfare spending (H53) | intergenerational income mobility (J62) |
| tax rate differences (H29) | intergenerational income mobility (J62) |
| specific policies (J18) | disadvantaged children's outcomes (I24) |