Working Paper: NBER ID: w25844
Authors: Maximilian W. Mueller; Joan Hamory Hicks; Jennifer Johnson-Hanks; Edward Miguel
Abstract: We examine the stability of preferences over time using panel data from Kenya on fertility intentions, realizations, and recall of intentions. We find that desired fertility is very unstable, but that most people perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time. Moreover, when asked to recall past intentions, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. Biased recall of preferences over a major life decision could have important implications for measuring excess fertility, the evolution of norms, and the perceived need for family planning programs.
Keywords: Fertility intentions; Recall bias; Projection bias; Family planning
JEL Codes: D83; D84; D91; I12; J12; J13; O12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| time (C41) | changes in fertility desires (J13) |
| changing circumstances (D84) | changes in fertility desires (J13) |
| life events (G14) | misprediction of future fertility behavior (J13) |
| current desires (D12) | recalled desires (Y60) |
| desired fertility increases (J13) | recall bias (D91) |