Working Paper: NBER ID: w25766
Authors: Alberto Ciancio; Camilo Garcia-Jimeno
Abstract: We study how the shared responsibilities over immigration enforcement by local and federal levels in the US shape immigration enforcement outcomes, using detailed data on the Secure Communities program (2008-2014). Tracking the movement of arrested unlawfully present immigrants along the several steps of the immigration enforcement pipeline, and exploiting a large shift in federal enforcement priorities in mid 2011, we disentangle the three key components of the variation in deportation rates: federal enforcement efforts, local enforcement efforts, and the composition of the pool of arrestees. This decomposition allows us to recover the local (county) level response to changes in federal enforcement intensity. Among urban counties, 80 percent, mostly Democratic but with small shares of Hispanics, exhibit strategic substitutabilities. The inverse relationship between federal and local efforts allowed most counties to reduce opposition to the policy, and was accompanied by an increased alignment of local and federal preferences. The federal level was very effective in directing its enforcement efforts towards counties where it expected local collaboration, but conflict was mostly driven by a change in the types of unlawfully present immigrants it prioritized for removal.
Keywords: immigration enforcement; federalism; local government; Secure Communities; deportation rates
JEL Codes: D73; D78; H73; H77; J15; J61; K37
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Federal enforcement efforts (K42) | Local enforcement responses (K42) |
| Federal enforcement intensity (H77) | Local enforcement efforts (K42) |
| Local enforcement efforts (K42) | Deportation outcomes (K37) |
| Composition of the pool of arrestees (H76) | Deportation outcomes (K37) |
| Political and demographic factors (J18) | Local enforcement responses (K42) |