Working Paper: NBER ID: w25730
Authors: Stephen B. Billings; Mark Hoekstra
Abstract: This paper examines how elementary-aged peers affect cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes from adolescence to adulthood. We identify effects by exploiting within-school and within-neighborhood variation in the proportion of peers with an arrested parent. Results indicate exposure to these peers reduces achievement and increases antisocial behavior during middle and high school. More importantly, we estimate that a five percentage point increase in school and neighborhood crime-prone peers increases arrest rates at age 19 - 21 by 6.5 and 2.6 percent, respectively. Additional evidence suggests these effects are due to attending school with crime-prone peers, rather than living in the same neighborhood.
Keywords: crime-prone peers; cognitive outcomes; noncognitive outcomes; long-run effects; arrest rates
JEL Codes: I21; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| exposure to crime-prone peers (K42) | cognitive outcomes (D91) |
| five percentage point increase in crime-prone peers (C92) | performance reduction in educational achievement (I24) |
| exposure to crime-prone peers (K42) | antisocial behavior (K42) |
| five percentage point increase in crime-prone peers (C92) | increase in antisocial behavior (K42) |
| five percentage point increase in crime-prone peers (C92) | probability of being arrested by age 19-21 (K40) |
| exposure to crime-prone peers during childhood (K42) | increased criminal behavior in adulthood (K42) |