Working Paper: NBER ID: w25728
Authors: Giovanni Peri; Akira Sasahara
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of temperature changes on rural-urban migration using a 56km×56km grid cell level dataset covering the whole world at 10-year frequency during the period 1970-2000. We find that rising temperatures reduce rural-urban migration in poor countries and increase such migration in middle-income countries. These asymmetric migration responses are consistent with a simple model where rural-urban earnings differentials and liquidity constraints interact to determine rural-to-urban migration flows. We also confirm these temperature effects using country-level observations constructed by aggregating the grid cell level data. We project that expected warming in the next century will encourage further urbanization in middle-income countries such as Argentina, but it will slow down urban transition in poor countries like Malawi and Niger.
Keywords: Global warming; Rural-urban migration; Temperature change; Economic development
JEL Codes: J61; O13; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| rising temperatures (Q54) | reduced rural-urban migration in poor countries (R23) |
| higher temperatures negatively impact agricultural productivity (Q54) | reduced rural-urban migration in poor countries (R23) |
| rising temperatures (Q54) | increased rural-urban migration in middle-income countries (R23) |
| widening rural-urban income differentials (R11) | increased rural-urban migration in middle-income countries (R23) |
| temperature effects on migration (F22) | insignificant in rich countries (F61) |