Working Paper: NBER ID: w25639
Authors: Randall Akee; Maggie R. Jones
Abstract: Using a novel panel data set of recent immigrants to the U.S. (2005–2007) from individual-level linked U.S. Census Bureau survey data and Internal Revenue Service administrative records, we identify the determinants of return migration and earnings assimilation. We show that by 10 years after arrival almost 40 percent have return migrated. We show, for the first time, that return migrants experience downward earnings mobility over two to three years prior to their return migration. This finding suggests that economic shocks are closely related to emigration decisions. As a result, standard calculations of immigrants earnings growth may be understated.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F22; J15; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic shocks (F69) | Return migration (F22) |
| Downward earnings mobility (J62) | Return migration (F22) |
| Earnings assimilation by education level (J31) | Earnings growth (O49) |
| Return migration (F22) | Downward earnings mobility (J62) |
| Economic shocks (F69) | Downward earnings mobility (J62) |