Working Paper: NBER ID: w25632
Authors: Johanna Catherine Maclean; John Buckell; Joachim Marti
Abstract: We examine the importance of information source (the ‘messenger’) on consumer choice in the context of cigarettes, electronic and tobacco. We proxy choice with intentions to use cigarettes and risk perceptions. We experimentally vary the messenger across three information sources: government, physicians, and private companies. We compare effects relative to a no source control in a sample of adult smokers. Neoclassical theory predicts that the information source, or the messenger, should not influence choices. Behavioral economics suggests that the messenger can have important implications for how consumers process information and, in turn, make decisions. Our findings provide evidence in line with behavioral economics: the messenger influences intention to use e-cigarettes, and risk perceptions about e-cigarettes and tobacco cigarettes. Private companies appear to be particularly important messengers and are potentially the economic agents most likely to shape the future adult demand for cigarettes.
Keywords: e-cigarettes; tobacco; messenger effect; consumer choice; public health
JEL Codes: D91; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| fictitious e-cigarette company (L66) | intentions to use e-cigarettes (L96) |
| fictitious e-cigarette company (L66) | perceptions of risk associated with e-cigarettes (D18) |
| fictitious e-cigarette company (L66) | perceptions of health improvement from switching to e-cigarettes (I10) |
| government (H11) | intentions to use e-cigarettes (L96) |
| physicians (I11) | intentions to use e-cigarettes (L96) |
| government (H11) | perceptions of risk associated with e-cigarettes (D18) |
| physicians (I11) | perceptions of risk associated with e-cigarettes (D18) |
| government (H11) | perceptions of health improvement from switching to e-cigarettes (I10) |
| physicians (I11) | perceptions of health improvement from switching to e-cigarettes (I10) |