Working Paper: NBER ID: w25569
Authors: Courtney Coile; Mark Duggan
Abstract: The economic progress of U.S. men has stagnated in recent decades, with declining labor force participation and weak growth in real earnings, particularly for less educated and non-white men. In this paper, we illuminate the broader context in which prime-age men are experiencing economic stagnation. We explore changes for prime-age men over time in education, mortality, morbidity, disability program receipt, family structure, and incarceration rates, indicators that may be affected by men’s sluggish economic progress or play a role in explaining it, or both. While establishing causality for such a wide range of health and other outcomes is inherently difficult, we discuss clues provided by recent research.
Keywords: economic stagnation; labor force participation; health outcomes; education; incarceration
JEL Codes: I10; I20; J12; J22; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic stagnation (P27) | declines in labor force participation (J21) |
| economic stagnation (P27) | declines in real earnings (J31) |
| economic stagnation (P27) | adverse health outcomes among prime-age men (I12) |
| economic stagnation (P27) | rising mortality rates (J11) |
| lower educational attainment (I24) | higher mortality rates (I12) |
| economic factors (P42) | health issues faced by prime-age men (I12) |
| economic conditions (E66) | increase in disability program enrollment (H53) |
| higher incarceration rates (K14) | negatively affect earnings potential (J79) |
| higher incarceration rates (K14) | negatively affect social structures (J12) |
| higher incarceration rates (K14) | reinforce economic stagnation (E65) |