Working Paper: NBER ID: w25554
Authors: Wolfram Schlenker; Charles A. Taylor
Abstract: An emerging literature examines how agents update their beliefs about climate change. Most studies have relied on indirect belief measures or opinion polls. We analyze a direct measure: prices of financial products whose payouts are tied to future weather outcomes. We compare these market expectations to climate model output for the years 2002 to 2018 as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US. All datasets show statistically significant and comparable warming trends. Nonparametric estimates suggest that trends in weather markets follow climate model predictions and are not based on shorter-term variation in observed weather station data. When money is at stake, agents are accurately anticipating warming trends in line with the scientific consensus of climate models.
Keywords: Climate Change; Market Expectations; Futures Contracts; Weather Derivatives
JEL Codes: G17; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| market prices (P22) | anticipated weather deviations from historical averages (Q54) |
| market expectations (D84) | pricing of weather futures contracts (G13) |
| climate model predictions (E17) | market expectations (D84) |
| weather shocks (Q54) | market prices (P22) |
| market participants (G10) | internalize climate model predictions (Q54) |
| market expectations (D84) | spatial heterogeneity of warming trends (C21) |