Working Paper: NBER ID: w25553
Authors: David Hirshleifer; Yifan Li; Ben Lourie; Thomas Ruchti
Abstract: Payment timeliness in trade credit transactions is a key metric suppliers use to monitor their buyers. However, firms are not required to disclose payment timeliness information. In theory, late payments could be either a positive or negative indicator of future performance. We find that late payment by buyers is negatively associated with future buyer financial performance and positively associated with subsequent default risk. This suggests that late payments are an indicator of inability to pay on time rather than an indicator that firms are delaying payments to fund profitable investments. The predictive power of payment timeliness for fundamentals is stronger for low liquidity and distressed firms. Finally, we find a significant association between payment timeliness and future stock returns, suggesting that investors do not fully incorporate payment timeliness information. Our evidence regarding the informativeness of payment timeliness is relevant for the ongoing regulatory debate on whether firms should disclose payment timeliness.
Keywords: Trade Credit; Payment Timeliness; Financial Performance; Default Risk; Stock Returns
JEL Codes: G3; G32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Late Payments (G33) | Future ROA (R59) |
| Late Payments (G33) | Sales Growth (O49) |
| Late Payments (G33) | Default Risk (G33) |
| Past Due Percentages (Y10) | Bankruptcy Likelihood (K35) |
| Late Payments (G33) | Stock Returns (G12) |