Working Paper: NBER ID: w25490
Authors: Guillaume Blanc; Romain Wacziarg
Abstract: Using a unique, comprehensive household-level dataset for a single French village from 1730 to 1895, we study the process of modernization during a period of rapid institutional and demographic transformation. We document changes in fertility, mortality, human capital and intergenerational mobility, looking for structural breaks associated with the French Revolution and paying close attention to the sequencing of changes associated with various aspects of modernization in the village. We find that the fall in fertility preceded the rise in education by several decades. Demographic change is plausibly associated with institutional and cultural change rather than with changes in the opportunity cost of children. The rise in education occurred mostly as the result of an increase in the supply of schooling due to the Guizot Law, rather than demand side forces. All these changes occurred in the absence of industrialization in and around the village. We conclude that institutional and cultural changes originating outside the village were likely the dominant forces explaining its modernization.
Keywords: modernization; fertility; mortality; human capital; intergenerational mobility
JEL Codes: N13; N33; N43; O43; O52; Z10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| fall in fertility (J13) | rise in education (I24) |
| demographic changes (J11) | institutional and cultural changes (O17) |
| rise in education (I24) | increase in supply of schooling due to Guizot law (H52) |
| declining child mortality rates (J13) | shift in parental investment strategies (J13) |