Working Paper: NBER ID: w25446
Authors: David A. Jaeger; Theodore J. Joyce; Robert Kaestner
Abstract: We examine the relationship between social media activity, such as Google searches and tweets, related to teen pregnancy and the airing of the MTV program 16 and Pregnant. In contrast to Kearney and Levine's (2015) claim of a positive relationship, we find that the association is statistically insignificant or negative, when the analysis includes periods when new episodes of the program were not being broadcast. The results are also sensitive to using the total number of tweets, which were growing exponentially, as weights. Our results cast substantial doubt on social media as a link in the causal chain between reality television and fertility.
Keywords: Reality TV; Teen Pregnancy; Social Media; Causal Inference
JEL Codes: C81; J13; L82
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| airing of new episodes of '16 and Pregnant' (J13) | increased social media activity (tweets and Google searches) (Z13) |
| airing of new episodes of '16 and Pregnant' (J13) | increase in tweets or searches related to birth control and abortion (J13) |
| airing of new episodes of '16 and Pregnant' (J13) | decline in tweets about birth control and abortion (J13) |
| increased social media activity (tweets and Google searches) (Z13) | changes in fertility behavior (J13) |