Working Paper: NBER ID: w25431
Authors: Hugh Rockoff
Abstract: Although attempts to measure trends in prices, output, and employment can be traced back for centuries, in the main the origins of the U.S. federal statistics are to be found in bitter debates over economic policy, ultimately debates over the distribution of income, at the end of the nineteenth century and during the world wars and Great Depression. Participants in those debates hoped that statistics that were widely accepted as nonpolitical and accurate would prove that their grievances were just and provide support for the policies they advocated. Economists – including luminaries such as Irving Fisher, Wesley C. Mitchell, and Simon Kuznets – responded by developing the methodology for computing index numbers and estimates of national income. Initially, individuals and private organizations provided these statistics, but by the end of WWII the federal government had taken over the role. Here I briefly describe the cases of prices, GDP, and unemployment.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: A30
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| labor unrest (J52) | establishment of the U.S. Bureau of Labor in 1884 (J80) |
| methodologies of economists (Irving Fisher and Simon Kuznets) (B40) | development of federal statistics (C80) |
| World War I (N44) | urgency of developing accurate unemployment statistics (J64) |
| Great Depression (G01) | urgency of developing accurate unemployment statistics (J64) |