Working Paper: NBER ID: w25425
Authors: Lawrence F. Katz; Alan B. Krueger
Abstract: This paper describes and tries to reconcile trends in alternative work arrangements in the United States using data from the Contingent Worker Survey supplements to the Current Population Survey (CPS) for 1995 to 2017, the 2015 RAND-Princeton Contingent Work Survey (CWS), and administrative tax data from the Internal Revenue Service for 2000 to 2016. We conclude that there likely has been a modest upward trend in the share of the U.S. workforce in alternative work arrangements during the 2000s based on the cyclically-adjusted comparisons of the CPS CWS’s, measures using self-respondents in the CPS CWS, and measures of self-employment and 1099 workers from administrative tax data. We also present evidence from Amazon Mechanical Turk that suggests that the basic monthly CPS question on multiple job holding misses many instances of multiple job holding
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J21; J81
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cyclical conditions affecting employment status (J64) | Share of workers in alternative arrangements (J29) |
| Increase in self-employment (J23) | Increase in alternative work arrangements (J29) |
| CPS's standard questions on multiple job holding (J63) | Underestimate actual rate of multiple job holding (J60) |
| Survey methodologies (C83) | Misclassification in self-reports of alternative work arrangements (J29) |
| Proxy respondents (D79) | Misclassification in self-reports of alternative work arrangements (J29) |