Working Paper: NBER ID: w25356
Authors: Adrien Bouguen; Yue Huang; Michael Kremer; Edward Miguel
Abstract: We assess evidence from randomized control trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long-run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data, improved participant tracking methods, alternative research designs, and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.
Keywords: Randomized Control Trials; Long-Run Impacts; Development Economics; Cash Transfers; Child Health
JEL Codes: I32; I38; O12; O15; O16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| cash transfer programs (F16) | significant long-run improvements in living standards (O57) |
| cash transfer programs (F16) | improvement in educational attainment (I24) |
| cash transfer programs (F16) | improvement in labor market outcomes (J48) |
| deworming interventions (I30) | increased educational attainment (I24) |
| deworming interventions (I30) | increased labor productivity (J24) |
| deworming interventions (I30) | long-term earnings gains (J31) |
| entrepreneurial grants (L26) | initial positive impacts on earnings (F69) |
| entrepreneurial grants (L26) | diminishing effects on earnings over time (J31) |