Working Paper: NBER ID: w25330
Authors: Maryaline Catillon; David Cutler; Thomas Getzen
Abstract: Using two hundred years of national and Massachusetts data on medical care and health, we examine how central medical care is to life expectancy gains. While common theories about medical care cost growth stress growing demand, our analysis highlights the importance of supply side factors, including the major public investments in research, workforce training and hospital construction that fueled a surge in spending over the 1955-1975 span. There is a stronger case that personal medicine affected health in the second half of the twentieth century than in the preceding 150 years. Finally, we consider whether medical care productivity decreases over time, and find that spending increased faster than life expectancy, although the ratio stabilized in the past two decades.
Keywords: health; medical care; life expectancy; public health; mortality
JEL Codes: H51; I15; I18; J1; N3; O1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Public health improvements (I14) | Mortality reduction (I14) |
| Medical care (I11) | Mortality reduction (I14) |
| Number of physicians and trained nurses (I11) | Mortality rates (I12) |
| Increased medical care (I11) | Life expectancy gains (J17) |
| Personal medicine (I11) | Health outcomes (I14) |
| Medical spending (H51) | Life expectancy gains (J17) |