Working Paper: NBER ID: w25328
Authors: Frank R. Lichtenberg
Abstract: I investigate whether the types of cancer (breast, colon, lung, etc.) subject to greater penetration of new ideas had larger subsequent survival gains and mortality reductions, controlling for changing incidence. I use the MEDLINE/PubMED database, which contains more than 23 million references to journal articles published in 5400 leading biomedical journals, to construct longitudinal measures of the penetration of new medical ideas.\nThe 5-year survival rate is strongly positively related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12-24 years earlier. This finding is consistent with evidence from case studies that it takes a long time for research evidence to reach clinical practice. The estimates suggest that about 70% of the 1994-2008 increase in the 5-year observed survival rate for all cancer sites combined may have been due to the increase in the novelty of medical ideas 12-24 years earlier.\nThe number of years of potential life lost from cancer before ages 80 and 70 are inversely related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12-24 years earlier, conditional on incidence. The increase in medical idea novelty was estimated to have caused a 38% decline in the premature (before age 80) cancer mortality rate 12-24 years later.
Keywords: cancer; survival; mortality; medical ideas; technological progress
JEL Codes: I1; J11; O3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| novelty of medical ideas (I10) | 5-year survival rate (J17) |
| novelty of medical ideas (12-24 years prior) (B11) | 5-year survival rate (J17) |
| novelty of medical ideas (I10) | years of potential life lost (YPLL) (J17) |
| novelty of medical ideas (12-24 years prior) (B11) | years of potential life lost (YPLL) (J17) |