Working Paper: NBER ID: w25301
Authors: Kristn H. Birgisdottir; Arna Hauksdottir; Christopher J. Ruhm; Unnur Anna Valdimarsdottir; Tinna Laufey Sgeirsdottir
Abstract: We explore whether the 2008 economic collapse in Iceland and subsequent economic crisis affected the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events, independent of regular cyclical effects attributed to typical economic conditions. We estimate linear probability models using administrative data on IHD events, earnings and balance-sheet status, as well as unemployment for all Icelanders aged 16 and older in 2000-2014. \nWe find that the sharp change in economic conditions in 2008 had a positive long-term effect on the probability of cardiovascular events in both males and females. In absolute terms these effects were small but often statistically significant and contrast with the finding that general business-cycle fluctuations operated in the opposite direction. Several potential mediators were correlated with the probability of IHD events, but their inclusion had little effect on the estimated economic crisis coefficients. A statistically significant business-cycle effect is found for both genders indicating. Thus the general business cycle and the economic collapse in 2008 and subsequent crisis can be thought of as separate phenomena with differing effects on IHD. This research contributes to the literature by exploiting a unique circumstance affecting a whole population to explore its effects on individuals, using exceptional register data.
Keywords: Economic collapse; Cardiovascular events; Ischemic heart disease; Iceland
JEL Codes: I10; I15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 2008 economic collapse (F65) | probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events (I12) |
| general business cycle fluctuations (E32) | probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events (I12) |
| 2008 economic collapse (F65) | income (E25) |
| 2008 economic collapse (F65) | unemployment status (J64) |
| income (E25) | probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events (I12) |
| unemployment status (J64) | probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events (I12) |