Working Paper: NBER ID: w25287
Authors: William J. Collins; Ariell Zimran
Abstract: The repeated failure of Ireland's potato crop in the late 1840s led to a major famine and a surge in migration to the US. We build a dataset of Irish immigrants and their sons by linking males from 1850 to 1880 US census records. For comparison, we also link German and British immigrants, their sons, and males from US native-headed households. We document a decline in the observable human capital of famine-era Irish migrants compared to pre-famine Irish migrants and to other groups in the 1850 census, as well as worse labor market outcomes. The disparity in labor market outcomes persists into the next generation when immigrants’ and natives’ sons are compared in 1880. Nonetheless, we find strong evidence of intergenerational convergence in that famine-era Irish sons experienced a much smaller gap in occupational status than their fathers. The disparities are even smaller when the Irish children are compared to those from observationally similar native white households. A descriptive analysis of mobility for the famine-era Irish sons indicates that more Catholic surnames and birth in Ireland were associated with less upward mobility. Our results contribute to literatures on immigrant assimilation, refugee migration, and the Age of Mass Migration.
Keywords: Irish migration; economic assimilation; labor market outcomes; intergenerational mobility
JEL Codes: F22; J61; J62; N31; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Human capital of Irish immigrant household heads deteriorated during the famine period (O15) | Lower literacy and numeracy rates (I24) |
| Lower literacy and numeracy rates (I24) | Poorer adult labor market outcomes of famine-era Irish migrants' sons (J79) |
| Socioeconomic status of fathers (J12) | Adult labor market outcomes of famine-era Irish migrants' sons (J49) |
| Early life conditions (J19) | Adult labor market outcomes of famine-era Irish migrants' sons (J49) |
| Catholic identity of migrants (F22) | Lower mobility outcomes (J62) |
| Sons of famine-era Irish immigrants (J82) | Narrowed occupational status gap relative to their fathers' starting point (I24) |