Working Paper: NBER ID: w25267
Authors: Treb Allen; Cau de Castro Dobbins; Melanie Morten
Abstract: Between 2006 and 2010 the U.S. government built an additional 548 miles of border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Combining survey data from all major border crossing points with administrative data on 5.7 million primarily unauthorized Mexican migrants, we study how the border wall expansion affected migration patterns and local labor markets. The wall changed migrants’ choice of route, their choice of destination within the United States, and their decision to migrate in the first place. On net, we estimate the wall decreased migration flows by three hundred thousand migrants, roughly one-third of the observed decline in Mexican migration between 2005 and 2015. Incorporating the decrease in migration into a spatial equilibrium model, we estimate that the wall increased (decreased) wages of low-skill (high-skill) U.S. workers by a modest $9 ($21) per year.
Keywords: border wall; migration; economic impacts; general equilibrium; labor markets
JEL Codes: F11; F22; J2; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| border wall expansion (F55) | decline in migration flows (F22) |
| increase in travel time due to border wall (R41) | decline in bilateral migration flows (F22) |
| border wall expansion (F55) | decrease in number of Mexican workers in the U.S. (J63) |
| border wall expansion (F55) | welfare gains for low-skill U.S. workers (F66) |
| border wall expansion (F55) | harm to Mexican workers (K37) |
| border wall expansion (F55) | harm to high-skill U.S. workers (F66) |