Working Paper: NBER ID: w25244
Authors: Katherine Baicker; Amy Finkelstein
Abstract: In 2008, a group of uninsured low-income adults in Oregon was selected by lottery for the chance to apply for Medicaid. Using this randomized design and state administrative data on voter behavior, we analyze how a Medicaid expansion affected voter turnout and registration. We find that Medicaid increased voter turnout in the November 2008 Presidential election by about 7 percent overall, with the effects concentrated in men (18 percent increase) and in residents of democratic counties (10 percent increase); there is suggestive evidence that the increase in voting reflected new voter registrations, rather than increased turnout among pre-existing registrants. There is no evidence of an increase in voter turnout in subsequent elections, up to and including the November 2010 midterm election.
Keywords: Medicaid; Voter Participation; Health Insurance; Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
JEL Codes: I13; I28
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Medicaid expansion (I18) | voter turnout (K16) |
| Medicaid expansion (I18) | voter registration (K16) |
| lottery selection (H27) | Medicaid coverage (I18) |
| lottery selection (H27) | voter turnout (K16) |
| lottery selection (H27) | voter registration (K16) |
| Medicaid coverage (I18) | voter turnout (K16) |
| Medicaid coverage (I18) | voter registration (K16) |