Working Paper: NBER ID: w25093
Authors: James J. Heckman; Sidharth Moktan
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between placement of publications in Top Five (T5) journals and receipt of tenure in academic economics departments. Analyzing the job histories of tenure-track economists hired by the top 35 U.S. economics departments, we find that T5 publications have a powerful influence on tenure decisions and rates of transition to tenure. A survey of the perceptions of young economists supports the formal statistical analysis. Pursuit of T5 publications has become the obsession of the next generation of economists. However, the T5 screen is far from reliable. A substantial share of influential publications appear in non-T5 outlets. Reliance on the T5 to screen talent incentivizes careerism over creativity.
Keywords: tenure; top five journals; academic economics; publication; careerism
JEL Codes: A14; I23; J44; O31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| T5 publications (Y50) | tenure decisions (M51) |
| three T5 articles (Y20) | tenure receipt (Y20) |
| one T5 article (Y20) | tenure receipt (Y20) |
| two T5 articles (Y20) | tenure receipt (Y20) |
| T5 publications (Y50) | tenure probabilities (C41) |
| department quality (A29) | impact of T5 publications on tenure rates (A14) |
| T5 filter (Y20) | careerism over creativity (P12) |