Vanished Classmates: The Effects of Local Immigration Enforcement on Student Enrollment

Working Paper: NBER ID: w25080

Authors: Thomas Dee; Mark Murphy

Abstract: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is the federal law-enforcement agency with primary responsibility for enforcing immigration laws within the U.S. However, for over a decade, ICE has formed partnerships that also allow local police to enforce immigration law (i.e., identifying and arresting undocumented residents). Prior studies, using survey data with self-reported immigrant and citizenship status, provide mixed evidence on the demographic impact of these controversial partnerships. This study presents new evidence based on the public-school enrollment of Hispanic students. We find that local ICE partnerships reduce the number of Hispanic students by nearly 10 percent within 2 years. We estimate that the local ICE partnerships enacted before 2012 displaced over 300,000 Hispanic students. These effects appear to be concentrated among elementary-school students. We find no corresponding effects on the enrollment of non-Hispanic students. We also find no evidence that ICE partnerships reduced pupil-teacher ratios or the percent of students eligible for the National School Lunch Program (NSLP).

Keywords: immigration; enforcement; education; Hispanic students; ICE partnerships

JEL Codes: I2; J15


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
local ICE partnerships (K37)reduction in Hispanic student enrollment (I24)
local ICE partnerships (K37)displacement of Hispanic students (I24)
local ICE partnerships (K37)unwelcoming environments for undocumented residents and Hispanic citizens (K37)
reduction in Hispanic student enrollment (I24)discouragement of new families from arriving (J12)

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