Working Paper: NBER ID: w25041
Authors: Yi Chen; Hanming Fang
Abstract: Family planning plays a central role in contemporary population policies. However, little is known about its long-term consequences in old age because of the identification challenge. In this study, we examine how family planning affects the quality of life of the Chinese elderly. The direction of the effect is theoretically unclear. On the one hand, having fewer children allows parents to reallocate more resources to themselves, improving their well-being. On the other hand, having fewer children also leads to less care and companionship from children in old age. To empirically probe the effect of family planning, we identify the causal impact by exploiting the provincial heterogeneity in implementing the “Later, Longer, Fewer” policies in the early 1970s. We find that the policies greatly reduced the number of children born to each couple by 0.85. Parents also receive less support from children in terms of living arrangements, inter vivos transfers, and emotional support. Finally, we find that family planning has drastically different effects on elderly parent's physical and mental well-being. Whereas parents who are more exposed to the family planning policies consume more and enjoy slightly better physical health status, they report more severe depression symptoms. Our study calls for greater attention to the mental health status of the Chinese elderly.
Keywords: family planning; elderly well-being; China; mental health; physical health
JEL Codes: H31; I15; I18; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Exposure to later longer fewer policies (J18) | Reduced number of children born to couples (J13) |
| Reduced number of children born to couples (J13) | Decreased support from children in terms of living arrangements (J12) |
| Reduced number of children born to couples (J13) | Decreased financial transfers from children (D14) |
| Reduced number of children born to couples (J13) | Decreased emotional support from children (J12) |
| Exposure to later longer fewer policies (J18) | Improved physical health of parents (I19) |
| Exposure to later longer fewer policies (J18) | Increased consumption of parents (D19) |
| Exposure to later longer fewer policies (J18) | Higher levels of depression in parents (J12) |
| Reduced number of children born to couples (J13) | Negative impact on mental well-being (I31) |
| Fewer children (J13) | Improved financial support per child (I22) |
| Fewer children (J13) | Enhanced educational outcomes and earnings potential (I26) |
| Reduced social and emotional support from children (J13) | Negative effects on mental health (I12) |
| Negative effects on mental health (I12) | More pronounced among rural parents and mothers (J12) |