Working Paper: NBER ID: w24905
Authors: Charles F. Manski
Abstract: Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and serves important practical purposes. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists often suggest that researchers respond to incentives that make the practice tempting. This temptation is the "lure" of incredible certitude. I flesh out and appraise some of the rationales that observers may have in mind when they state that incredible certitude responds to incentives. I conclude that scientific expression of incredible certitude at most has appeal in certain limited contexts. It should not be a general practice.
Keywords: scientific uncertainty; incredible certitude; economic research; policy analysis; partial identification
JEL Codes: A11; D80; Z18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| institutional expectations (D02) | reporting findings (C90) |
| public expectations (D84) | researchers' reporting (C90) |
| researchers (C90) | policymakers' decision-making (D72) |
| expressing incredible certitude (D81) | coping with uncertainty (D80) |
| incredible certitude (D81) | decision-making simplification (D91) |
| societal acceptance of certitudes (Z13) | coordination failures (P11) |