Working Paper: NBER ID: w24884
Authors: Eunhee Lee; Keimu Yi
Abstract: We assess the role of global value chains in transmitting global integration shocks to aggregate trade, as well as distributional outcomes. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium trade model that features multi-stage production, with different stages having different productivities and using factors (occupations) with different intensities. The model also features a Roy mechanism, in which heterogeneous workers endogenously choose their sector and occupation. Country- and worker-level comparative advantages interact. A reduction in trade costs leads to countries specializing in their comparative advantage sectors and production stages. This specialization changes labor demand, and also leads to more workers shifting to their comparative advantage sectors and occupations. We calibrate our model to the U.S., China, and the rest of the world in 2000 and we simulate a decline in China's trade costs with the U.S., designed to mimic China's entry into the WTO. Our simulation results imply an increase in the skill premium in both the U.S. and China, and the GVC, i.e., specialization across stages, is critical to this outcome.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Reduction in trade costs (F12) | Specialization in comparative advantage sectors (F12) |
| Specialization in comparative advantage sectors (F12) | Changes in labor demand (J23) |
| Reduction in trade costs (F12) | Changes in labor demand (J23) |
| Changes in labor demand (J23) | Increases in skill premium (J24) |
| Specialization in comparative advantage sectors (F12) | Increases in skill premium (J24) |