Working Paper: NBER ID: w24878
Authors: Manudeep Bhuller; Gordon B. Dahl; Katrine V. Løken; Magne Mogstad
Abstract: Using quasi-random assignment of criminal cases to judges, we estimate large incarceration spillovers in criminal and brother networks. When a defendant is sent to prison, there are 51 and 32 percentage point reductions in the probability his criminal network members and younger brothers will be charged with a crime, respectively, over the ensuing four years. Correlational evidence misleadingly finds small positive effects. These spillovers are of first order importance for policy, as the network reductions in future crimes committed are larger than the direct effect on the incarcerated defendant.
Keywords: incarceration; spillovers; criminal networks; family networks
JEL Codes: K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Judge stringency (C52) | Incarceration (K14) |
| Incarceration (K14) | Reduction in probability of criminal network members being charged with a crime (K42) |
| Incarceration of older brother (K40) | Reduction in likelihood of younger brother being charged with a crime (K49) |
| Incarceration (K14) | Spillover effects on brotherly relationships (J12) |
| Incarceration (K14) | No spillover effects on other family members (sisters or children) (J12) |