Working Paper: NBER ID: w24848
Authors: Achyuta Adhvaryu; Anant Nyshadham; Teresa Molina; Jorge Tamayo
Abstract: Can investing in children who faced adverse events in early childhood help them catch up? We answer this question using two orthogonal sources of variation – resource availability at birth (local rainfall) and cash incentives for school enrollment – to identify the interaction between early endowments and investments in children. We find that adverse rainfall in the year of birth decreases grade attainment, post-secondary enrollment, and employment outcomes. But children whose families were randomized to receive conditional cash transfers experienced a much smaller decline: each additional year of program exposure during childhood mitigated more than 20 percent of early disadvantage.
Keywords: early life shocks; conditional cash transfers; education outcomes; Progresa; human capital
JEL Codes: I15; I25; O12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | Mitigation of negative impact of rainfall on educational attainment (I24) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | Mitigation of negative impact of rainfall on employment outcomes (J68) |
| Progresa program exposure (H53) | Increase in educational attainment (I21) |
| Adverse rainfall in the year of birth (J19) | Decrease in educational attainment (I21) |
| Adverse rainfall in the year of birth (J19) | Decrease in employment outcomes (J68) |
| Adverse rainfall in the year of birth (J19) | Decrease in probability of working (J29) |