Working Paper: NBER ID: w24835
Authors: David E. Bloom; Mathew McKenna; Klaus Prettner
Abstract: Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 percent for adults and at or below 8 percent for youth. The facts that i) most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and ii) workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Keywords: Demography; Unemployment; Automation; Digitalization; Job Creation
JEL Codes: J1; J11; J2; J23; J89
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Population growth (J11) | Increased job creation needs (J23) |
| Automation (L23) | Increased job creation needs (J23) |
| Population growth (J11) | Changes in labor force participation rates (J49) |
| Population growth (J11) | Shifts in the age structure of the population (J11) |
| Automation (L23) | Replacement of manufacturing jobs (O14) |