Working Paper: NBER ID: w24822
Authors: Tatyana Deryugina; David Molitor
Abstract: We follow Medicare cohorts to estimate Hurricane Katrina's long-run mortality effects on victims initially living in New Orleans. Including the initial shock, the hurricane improved eight-year survival by 2.07 percentage points. Migration to lower-mortality regions explains most of this survival increase. Those migrating to low- versus high-mortality regions look similar at baseline, but their subsequent mortality is 0.83–1.01 percentage points lower per percentage-point reduction in local mortality, quantifying causal effects of place on mortality among this population. Migrants' mortality is also lower in destinations with healthier behaviors and higher incomes but is unrelated to local medical spending and quality.
Keywords: Hurricane Katrina; mortality; migration; Medicare; health outcomes
JEL Codes: H51; I10; Q54; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Hurricane Katrina (H84) | Mortality among New Orleans cohort (I12) |
| Hurricane Katrina (H84) | Long-run decline in mortality from 2006 to 2013 (I12) |
| Migration to lower-mortality regions (J11) | Lower mortality rates of individuals (I12) |
| Each percentage point increase in destination region's mortality rate (J11) | Increase of 0.83101 percentage points in mover's mortality rate (J11) |
| Local characteristics (healthier behaviors and higher incomes) (I14) | Mortality outcomes of migrants (J11) |