Working Paper: NBER ID: w24821
Authors: Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Yingquan Song; Qu Tang; Peng Zhang
Abstract: We provide the first nation-wide estimates on temperature effects on high-stakes cognitive performance in a developing country using data from the National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) in China. The NCEE is one of the most important institutions in China and affects hundreds of millions of families. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in temperature (3.29° C) decreases the total test score by 1.12% (9.62% of a standard deviation) and decreases the probability of getting into first-tier universities by 1.97% (4.38% of a standard deviation). This suggests that temperature plays an important role in high-stakes cognitive performance and has potentially far-reaching impacts for the careers and lifetime earnings of students.
Keywords: Cognitive Performance; Temperature Effects; National College Entrance Examination; China
JEL Codes: I23; I24; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Temperature increase (Q54) | Decrease in total test scores (C12) |
| Temperature increase (Q54) | Decrease in probability of admission to first-tier universities (D29) |
| Temperature increase (Q54) | Decrease in total test scores (art track) (C12) |
| Temperature increase (Q54) | Decrease in total test scores (science track) (C12) |