Working Paper: NBER ID: w24815
Authors: Ariell Zimran
Abstract: After adjusting for sample-selection bias, I find a net decline in average stature of 0.64 inches in the birth cohorts of 1832--1860 in the US. This result supports the veracity of the Antebellum Puzzle—a deterioration of health during early modern economic growth in the US. However, this adjustment alters the trend in average stature, validating concerns over bias in the historical heights literature. The adjustment is based on census-linked military height data and uses a two-step semi-parametric sample-selection model to adjust for selection on observables and unobservables.
Keywords: sample selection bias; height trends; antebellum puzzle; economic history
JEL Codes: I15; N11; N31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Adjustment for selection bias (C24) | Net decline in average stature of 0.64 inches (F62) |
| Correction for selection on unobservables (C24) | Estimated trend in average stature significantly differs from standard techniques (C51) |
| Correction for sample selection bias (C83) | Decline in stature after correcting for sample selection bias (J79) |
| Unobservables affecting height and enlistment are correlated (I24) | Estimation of selection bias (C51) |