Working Paper: NBER ID: w24773
Authors: Kristin Forbes; Ida Hjortsoe; Tsvetelina Nenova
Abstract: A major challenge for monetary policy is predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. We propose a new focus: directly incorporating the underlying shocks that cause exchange rate fluctuations when evaluating how these fluctuations “pass through” to import and consumer prices. A standard open-economy model shows that the relationship between exchange rates and prices depends on the shocks which cause the exchange rate to move. We build on this to develop a structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework for a small open economy and apply it to the UK. We show that prices respond differently to exchange rate movements based on what caused the movements. For example, exchange rate pass-through is low in response to domestic demand shocks and relatively high in response to domestic monetary policy shocks. This framework can improve our ability to estimate how pass-through can change over short periods of time. For example, it can explain why sterling’s post-crisis depreciation caused a sharper increase in prices than expected, while the effect of sterling’s 2013-15 appreciation was more muted. We also apply this framework to forecast the extent of pass-through from sterling’s sharp depreciation corresponding to the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.
Keywords: Exchange rate passthrough; Inflation; Monetary policy; Structural vector autoregression
JEL Codes: E31; E41; E52; F3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| exchange rate movements (F31) | import prices (P22) |
| exchange rate movements (F31) | consumer prices (P22) |
| domestic demand shocks (D12) | exchange rate passthrough (F31) |
| domestic monetary policy shocks (E39) | exchange rate passthrough (F31) |
| exchange rate passthrough (F31) | firms' pricing decisions (L11) |
| domestic demand shocks (D12) | firms' pricing decisions (L11) |
| tight monetary policy (E52) | firms' pricing decisions (L11) |
| negative global and domestic supply shocks (F41) | exchange rate passthrough (F31) |
| Brexit-related currency movements (F31) | exchange rate passthrough (F31) |